The Indianapolis Colts will head to Nashville to face the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 odds on Sunday. Indy is 6-5 and tied for second place in the AFC South while Tennessee is at the bottom of the division standings with a 4-7 mark.
NFL odds currently have the Colts installed as slim 1-point road favorites with the O/U at 43. Here are my best free NFL picks for Colts vs. Titans on December 3.
Colts vs Titans odds
Colts vs Titans predictions
The Indianapolis Colts are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last three games. While they’ve faced some underwhelming opponents during that stretch, the Tennessee Titans don’t exactly represent a step up in competition.
Tennessee has struggled on both sides of the ball, sitting 28th in the league in defensive EPA on the season while averaging just 13.3 points per game in its last four contests. Rookie quarterback Will Levis looked brilliant in his NFL debut in Week 8 but regression has since set in. In the last four weeks, Levis is averaging just 201 passing yards per game with 6.5 yards per attempt.
He won’t find it easy to move the ball against a Colts defense that has been surprisingly good against the pass, ranking ninth in dropback EPA. On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis should be able to air it out against a Titans secondary that is 31st in defensive dropback EPA.
Gardner Minshew has been efficient since taking the reigns at QB, and receivers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs should be able to get separation against a weak crop of Tennessee defensive backs.
Although it has historically been a good idea to bet on Titans head coach Mike Vrabel when he’s catching points at home, this line is close to a pick’em and the Colts have clearly been the better team this season. They proved that earlier this year at home when they beat Tennessee 23-16 as 2.5-point faves.
With the Titans going just 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games, fade them at home here.
My best bet: Colts -1 (-110 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Colts vs Titans same-game parlay
Colts -1Zack Moss Under 77.5 rushing yardsMichael Pittman Jr. Over 6.5 receptions
+800 at DraftKings
The Colts have lost running back Jonathan Taylor to a thumb injury, and while that means more touches for Zack Moss, it won’t be easy for him to eclipse his rushing yards total. Although the Colts backup RB rushed for 168 yards when these teams clashed in Week 5, that performance was an outlier for him. Tennessee’s defense has also been stingy against the run this season, with opponents averaging just 3.8 yards per carry.
Instead, I expect the Colts to rely on their aerial attack against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary that’s 27th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass attempt. That will mean lots of throws to Pittman, who ranks seventh in the league in targets and has racked up at least eight catches in four straight games.
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